Forecast Revenue Based on Contracts, Not Sales Calls
Your CRM shows $2.4M in 'high-confidence' renewals. Contracts show $1.5M auto-renew safely, $600K requires active engagement, $300K is at risk of churn. Expectica IQ closes the gap—showing what's actually contracted vs. what reps think will close.
The Revenue Forecasting Expectation Gap
The board expects data-driven forecasts. RevOps delivers rep confidence scores. Contracts tell the real story.
“CRM shows 'high-confidence renewals.' Contracts tell a different story.”
- •CRM forecast: “$2.4M renewals, 90% probability”
- •Contract reality: Only $1.5M auto-renews (other $900K requires active engagement)
- •Rep confidence: “Customer loves us, renewal is a lock”
- •Contract terms: Customer can cancel with 30-day notice (window opens in 45 days)
“Revenue forecast based on close dates in CRM. Contracts show different reality.”
- •CRM: “Deal closes Q1” (rep's optimistic timeline)
- •Contract: Stuck in legal review for 67 days (average is 42 days)
- •CRM: Still shows “90% close probability”
- •Reality: Deal won't close Q1 unless legal bottleneck cleared in 7 days
“Expansion revenue projected in CRM. Contracts show limitations.”
- •CRM: “Customer will expand to 100 licenses next quarter” ($50K upsell)
- •Contract reality: “Customer may add up to 25 additional licenses with 60-day notice”
- •Rep's projection exceeds contractual maximum by 75 licenses
- •Legal renegotiation required before expansion can happen
Forecast What's Contracted, Not What's Hoped
Expectica IQ analyzes contract terms to show you contractual renewal reality, deal velocity bottlenecks, and expansion constraints.
Renewal Forecast Based on Contract Terms (Not Rep Confidence)
Stop relying on rep gut feel. Expectica IQ shows contractual renewal reality by analyzing actual renewal clauses, termination rights, and auto-renewal terms.
CRM renewal forecast (based on rep input):
“$2.4M renewals, 90% weighted probability”
Expectica IQ contract analysis:
Renews automatically unless customer cancels. Risk: 10%
Customer must actively renew (no auto-renewal). Risk: 40%
Customer can cancel with 30-day notice (window opened 15 days ago). Risk: 60%
Adjusted Forecast
30% variance from rep-based forecast
Deal Velocity Alert
Will NOT close Q1 unless movement in next 7 days
- • Escalate to executive sponsor
- • Contact customer legal directly
- • Update CRM forecast to Q2
Deal Velocity Tracking (Know What's Actually Stuck)
CRM shows deals “in progress.” Expectica IQ shows which are actually stuck in legal review by tracking contract send dates and comparing to historical close times.
Common scenario:
- •Rep sends contract to customer legal
- •30 days pass, no response
- •Rep: “They're reviewing internally, still 90%”
- •Deal never closes
Expectica IQ detects:
- When contract was sent
- Days in legal review
- Comparison to historical average
- Flags deals significantly over average time
Expansion Revenue Reality Check
CRM shows expansion potential. Expectica IQ shows what's actually possible based on contractual terms, expansion caps, and required notice periods.
CRM expansion projection:
Customer: Acme Corp
Current: 50 licenses ($50K ARR)
Expansion opportunity: +50 licenses ($50K additional ARR)
Expected close: Q2 2026
Contract reality check:
“Customer may add up to 25 additional licenses per contract year with 60-day written notice. Expansion beyond 25 requires amendment negotiation.”
- Max without renegotiation: 75 licenses (+25)
- Rep's projection: 100 licenses (+50)
- Gap: 25 licenses require contract amendment
Revenue Impact
Contract Intelligence RevOps Can Trust
Features purpose-built for revenue forecasting based on contractual reality, not sales optimism.
Contract-Based Renewal Intelligence
Analyzes actual renewal contract terms to identify auto-renewal vs. active renewal required. Shows which renewals are contractually safe vs. at risk.
Deal Stuck Detection
Tracks when contracts were sent and monitors days in legal review. Compares current deal velocity to historical average and flags stalled deals.
Payment Milestone Tracking
Extracts payment milestones from contracts. Tracks when payments are contractually due and alerts when invoices should be sent.
Churn Risk Early Warning
Identifies when customer termination windows open. Monitors customer engagement levels and alerts when at-risk customers have ability to cancel.
Expansion Reality Check
Shows what expansion is actually possible based on contractual terms, expansion caps, and required notice periods.
Forecast Variance Analysis
Compares CRM forecast (rep confidence) to contract reality. Shows variance between sales optimism and contractual commitments.
How Revenue Operations Teams Use Expectica IQ
For VP Revenue Operations
“Stop defending forecast misses to the CEO. Show contractual reality vs. sales optimism. Board gets data-driven forecast based on what's actually committed.”
For Sales Operations
“Know which deals are stuck in legal vs. progressing normally. Escalate bottlenecks before quarter-end surprises.”
For Renewals Managers
“See which renewals require active engagement vs. auto-renew safely. Prioritize outreach to at-risk customers while termination windows are still open.”
For Customer Success Ops
“Get early warning when customer termination windows open. Intervene before churn notice arrives, not after.”
They Analyze Calls. We Analyze Contracts.
Gong and Clari provide revenue intelligence from sales conversations. Expectica IQ provides contract intelligence from legal commitments.
Gong/Clari Revenue Intelligence
Sales calls, CRM data, email sentiment
Rep behavior, deal stage, conversation analysis
“Rep is confident, customer sounds positive”
- Doesn't know what contract actually says
- Can't tell if deal is stuck in legal
- Doesn't track contractual renewal terms
- Misses payment milestones buried in MSAs
Expectica IQ Contract Intelligence
Signed contracts, legal commitments
Contractual terms, renewal clauses, payment obligations
“Contract shows customer can cancel with 30-day notice, window opens in 45 days”
- Knows exactly what's contracted (not what rep thinks)
- Tracks deal velocity through legal (stuck vs. progressing)
- Shows renewal risk based on contract terms
- Extracts payment milestones automatically
Together = Complete Picture
“How confident is the rep? How does customer sound?”
“What does the contract actually say?”
Best practice: Use both
• Expectica IQ for contractual reality (late-stage accuracy)
From Forecast Misses to Forecast Accuracy
VP Revenue Operations at Series B SaaS (220 employees)
Before Expectica IQ
- •Q1 forecast: $2.4M renewals (based on CRM)
- •Actual Q1: $1.7M closed
- •Miss: -$700K (-29% variance)
- •CEO: “Why did we miss forecast by 29%?”
- •RevOps: “Reps were confident, customers churned unexpectedly”
- • $400K: Active renewal required (not auto-renew)
- • $200K: Termination windows opened
- • $100K: Contracts stuck in legal
After Expectica IQ (Q2)
- •Contract analysis: $2.6M renewal contracts
- •- $1.8M auto-renews (low risk)
- $500K active renewal (medium risk)
- $300K termination windows (high risk) - •Forecast to CEO: $2.1M likely (range: $1.8M-$2.3M)
- •Q2 actual: $2.15M renewed
- •Variance: +$50K (+2.3% vs. likely forecast)
“Most accurate forecast we've ever had. What changed?”
RevOps: “We forecast based on contracts now, not rep confidence.”
“Result: Forecast accuracy improved from 71% to 98%.”
Forecast What's Real
Stop forecasting based on sales optimism. Show the board what's actually contracted, what's at risk, what requires intervention.
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